Do CIA and BND punish Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?

2017-08-02

(PDFs will be reworked and become available soon)

Erdogan’s recent motives and cornerstone foreign policy objectives are really problematic for the former allies of Ankara. The more Ankara pushes for an independent foreign policy apart from Washington and Berlin the more it becomes a headache for the Deep State in the United States and – applying the habitual language and comprehension of the USA – the Deep State in Germany.

Erdogan, since sometimes, tried to normalize Ankara-Moscow broken relations. For years, he opposed Putin’s position on Syria, and he has given up the demand that Syrian dictator Assad must go. On the contrary, he agreed with Russia and Iran to mutually fight ISIS and Al-Qaida associate Al-Nusra movement.

Furthermore, he pushed deeper to replace NATO military hardware, with Russian and Chinese military technologies. During his visit to Kremlin in March 2017, he agreed on a deal to purchase S-400 air and missile defence system – this deal was signed end of July 2017. Previously known as the S-300PMU-3 anti-aircraft weapon system developed in the 1990s by Russia's “Almaz – Antey Air and Space Defence Corporation”, the S-400 is an upgrade of the S-300 family. It has been in service with the Russian Armed Forces since 2007. The S-400 uses four missiles to fill its performance envelope: the very-long-range 40N6 (400 km), the long-range 48N6 (250 km), the medium-range 9M96E2 (120 km) and the short-range 9M96E (40 km). The S-400 has been described, as of 2017, as “one of the best air-defence systems currently made.” As soon as S-400 is deployed in Turkey, Ankara is supposed to host Russian military Technicians and advisors in order to materialize its deployment and maintenance. More Russian military advisors mean more leverage of Putin in decision making of Ankara.     

Actually, the NATO members are supposed to acquire NATO standard weaponry, the NATO standard military hardware are basically, American and German technologies. Erdogan posed competition among American and Russian military technologies in one hand, on the other amongst German and Russian Arm industries, which neither is for Washington nor for Berlin is acceptable.

Since months, President Trump endeavoured to make NATO members to increase their military expenditures in order to buy American military technologies and possibly German military techs. Erdogan caused huge challenges for president Trump and chancellor Merkel to export arms at least to the NATO members.

Meantime, Moscow retains leverage on Erdogan, especially thru its relationship with Kurds. Kurdish nationalism has been long central to Erdogan, first as an object of reconciliation, and now one of confrontation especially with the PKK. Moscow has deep ties with the Kurds go back two centuries.

Russia and soviet leaders always used them against Turkish leaders to assert control. The PKK is essentially a Kremlin sponsored cold war era creation. It is partly because of fears of Kurdish nationalism in Syria that Erdogan has come to believe; he has no choice than to accept Kremlin’s position in the region.

There are intelligence speculations, that during Erdogan’s visit to Kremlin, he was advised by Putin to abandon Incirlik military base managed by German Army, as part of Confidence-Building measures between Moscow and Ankara. Erdogan rebuffed to guarantee visits to forces there by German lawmakers, that has deepened rift between Berlin and Ankara, which utterly made the Bundesluftwaffe to withdraw their Tornado fighter jets from the military base in Incirlik and urged German politicians to discuss the withdrawal of the troops from the NATO base in Konya.

In December 2016, Erdogan has also agreed with Kremlin to originate Turkish Stream CNG pipeline project, which Kremlin determined to use it as a political tool, to predominate Balkan and east Europe. In addition, Erdogan on May 14-15 2017 visited China to join a summit for the “Belt and Road” (BRI), Beijing’s ambitious international logistics and trade plan. Belt and Road” consists of six economic collaboration routes that would affect 60 countries, potentially including Turkey. BRI refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road. It was unveiled in September and October 2013 in announcements.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also promoted it during his state visits in Asia and Europe, which caused concerns among American policy drivers. They accuse China, which Beijing with such an ambitious plan, wants to “dedollarize” the world market. It is assumed to be a great challenge for the national interest of America. Consequently, Ankara is complying with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative would not be tolerated by Washington. Moreover, Erdogan’s determined desire to reinstate Othman Empire and to establish “Pan-Turkism” and the willingness to dominate the Sunni Islamic world, caused fissure not only between Turkey and Saudi Arabia but also amid Ankara and Washington.

Erdogan claimed on July 3, 2017 – during the launching ceremony of the new Turkish Kinaliada Corvette at the Istanbul Navy shipyard – Turkey is “committed” to building its own aircraft carriers and he call for. He added that Ankara is seeking self-sufficiency in its defence industry, and will not allow anyone to block its military initiatives. “We will build our own aircraft carriers,” Erdogan said at the launching ceremony. The Kinaliada Corvette has been built locally under Turkey’s MILGEM national warship program aimed at building frigates with anti-submarine capabilities based on Turkish domestic technologies. The Kinaliada is the fourth Ada class corvette built under this project, as three such corvettes had already been commissioned by the Turkish Navy.

Meanwhile, Erdogan’s sponsorship to Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood caused cleft between Ankara and Tel Aviv in one hand on the other amid Ankara and Cairo. According to intelligence, Erdogan left no choice for CIA and BND; therefore, they have launched the project of “Great Albania” to penalize Erdogan and Putin.

By launching Great Albania, CIA and BND wish to kill number of birds with one stone. As soon as the project is turned up, the entire region will destabilized, which will make the job of the CIA and BND easier to launch training camps to train Fethullah Gülen loyalist to instigate unrest in Turkey. Secondly, when turmoil takes place in “Great Albania”, the Turkish Stream – the joint project of Kremlin and Ankara – will be prevented to stretch out to the region and beyond, because America wants to increase the export of LNG to Europe to curb Russian Pipeline Gas, in order to minimize European dependency on Russian Gas.

Meantime, CIA and BND plan according to intelligence to train operatives of Mujahedeen Khalq led by Mariam Rajabi to systematize regime change in Iran. In addition, they would train Aleksei Navalny’s loyalists to initiate regime change in Moscow, which compose the cornerstone of foreign policy objective of the Deep States in America and Germany. Furthermore, Putin’s Pan-Orthodox strategy in general and in particular in relation to Balkan caused concerns among policy makers in Washington and Berlin. According to the sources, Putin wants to establish satellite states in Balkan and use them as Trojan horses to counter NATO’s Russia-Ward Strategy, therefore the Deep States smack the drum of regime change in Moscow.

CIA and BND went subterranean, summoned its Israeli counterparts to put in order a counter-balance for Turkey. According to the recent report of the Army of Defense for Israel (IDF), Tel Aviv will launch a joint military maneuver with Greece and Cyprus on the Troodos Mountains of Cyprus. Units of Israeli air force, Hagana, Mossad, Israeli marine and Shayetet 13 would be part of the drill.

Ultimately, in according with the assessments of Counter Narco-Terrorism Alliance Germany, countdown for Erdogan is already begun and in upcoming future, we will experience tumult in Turkey as well as in the Balkan Peninsula.