The world in the aftermath of America

2017-07-17

(PDFs will be reworked and become available soon)

Since Donald Trump took over the oval office, uncertainty has two-folded and the International Liberal Order came under jeopardy. Even some analysts smack the drum of the end of the unipolar world. It was more evident during the G20 summit, which American lost its leading role to encourage the summit participant to condemn North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile test. Trump’s foreign policy objective to “Make America Great Again” not only isolated the country, but also caused mistrust amid the US strategic partners.

Albeit analysts advocate ending of the US global leadership, but as a national security analyst I am not convinced to accept that the unipolar world has come to an end. The US still has a super role in the world: the country spends more than 700 billion dollars as annual defence budget. America has around 18 aircraft carrier ships and has both, permanent and temporary military bases in more than 173 countries of the world. Furthermore, America has the most advanced missile and air defence system, the country holds water, ground and air superiority and supremacy.

Strategists around the globe recommend, that the world has better abolish Americas leading role, because the country is no longer an element of solution but part of the problem. The US war on terror strategy is a disaster, it has made the world more unsecure and vulnerable to the backlashes of the so-called terrorist organizations. The country’s capture and kill policy and counter insurgency strategy in Afghanistan and Iraq is a failure. From the time when the US occupied Iraq and Afghanistan both countries interred to the new phase of insecurity and sectarian warfare.

The US purported Arab Spring strategy is catastrophic, it inflamed med-east and Africa especially Syria, Iraq and Libya, the countries were transformed in to rubbles. The US aggressive policies in Europe and Asia posed arm race between US and Russia and meanwhile amid US and China, some analysts even believe the world is at the brink of World War 3.

Now the question is if America’s foremost function is eliminated, who should jump in to keep the International Liberal Order moving? The world has a few options, let China and Russia leap in to replace America but both countries do not enjoy water, air and ground supremacy. China and Russia have solitary Aircraft Carrier Ships. China spends around 200 Billion Dollars yearly and has only two overseas bases in Pakistan and Djibouti. Russia pays out roughly 70 Billion Dollars and has a few bases abroad namely in former Soviet Union republics and Syria. A combination of Russia and china cannot guarantee their leading role in the world; both counties face numerous deficits in comparison to America. Suppose they jump in, they would disrupt the World Liberal Order, which would cause again misfortune in the global affairs. 

The other alternative can be Canada to jump in, as Canada’s foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland in an exclusive interview with CNN described the position of her country. She said if America backs off Canada is ready to jump in order to keep the International Liberal Order be in place.

Canada on its own is not in the position to bring such an ambitious objective to reality. The other choice could be either Germany or France to take over, but both are incapable to reinstate the current global order, too. Furthermore, the foreign policy objectives of these countries have to be adjusted to be applicable to such a widened focus. Germany, for instance, has vaguely communicated foreign policy objectives and these objectives also vary among the ministries of defence, economic cooperation and development, and the foreign office. This explains at least to a certain extent Germanys incoherent policy with negligent weapon exports sometimes stirring up conflicts where diplomacy was about to solve some issues. 

The world truly is in need of an element – or elements – to restore International Liberal Order in the aftermath of American. In this respect, Counter Narco-Terrorism Alliance Germany advocates that Germany, France and in amalgamation with Canada could be a better choice to keep the International Liberal Order moving. Germany and France have proven for the last decade to lead the European Union successfully. However, both need a strong and unified EU in der back for being able to fill in this position: They need the support of the EU, and they have to speak in representation of the whole EU in order to have the power to occupy this position. There are a lot of critics, that Germany and France have not done their home works properly. Germany, for instance, lacks the will to address the differences in prosperity among the EU members as well as to adjust its tenuous foreign trade surplus.

All these complex issues have to be addressed for making the “Threesome Power” capable of taking the open position: This combination of the said countries can possibly assure the world peace, stability and economic prosperity as well as continuation of the current global order. Furthermore, the “Threesome Power” has much less military power, thus giving diplomacy more room.